- Augur is a trustless, decentralized oracle and prediction market platform running on the Ethereum blockchain. On the platform, anyone can create, monitor or trade in prediction markets about any topic.
- The system relies on the “Wisdom of Crowds” (i.e., collective intelligence’) via market incentives, “long-tail” dynamics and blockchain technology to securely generate a more accurate, robust and unfiltered array of dynamic event forecasts than any alternative can match.
- Augur is comprised of a set of smart contracts perpetually deployed on Ethereum, which enables applications deployed to be immune to local outages and censorship from third-parties.
- The REP token is used for the resolution of markets. Specifically, it is staked for an outcome of a market for anyone wishing to report the correct outcome of a market. It also powers the distributed oracle with the outcomes of events.
Augur is a decentralised prediction market which may forecast the result of an occasion supported the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ principle. With this method, information collected from the gang is averaged into the foremost realistic possibility and thus the foremost probable outcome. Correct predictions are rewarded by the network, while incorrect reporting is penalised – this incentivises truthful reporting.
The Augur aims to revolutionize prediction markets, and, in doing so, changing the way people receive and verify ‘truth’. the most idea is to form more accurate predictions by large groups of individuals , instead of alittle team of experts.
Augur is additionally the primary major decentralised application (Dapp) developed using Ethereum , and represents a serious proof of concept for this underlying technology. Decentralisation ensures that Augur can’t be censored by governments that deem prediction markets as gambling, whilst ensuring the sustainability of the appliance . This decentralised nature ensures honesty in reporting the result of events, using crowd wisdom to wipe out individual frauds.
Augur’s crowdsale raised quite 2,000 BTC and 100,000 Ether on its first day. It ran from 17 August 2015 until 5 September 2015. The platform is currently in beta phase.
The backbone of Augur is tradable tokens called Reputation (REP). the entire amount of Reputation is fixed at 11 million coins when it had been launched in August 2015. The tokens give the proper for people to report or weigh in on the result of events. It are often earned by people that provide truthful reports.
Additionally, people that submit correct predictions also are awarded some of the winnings whereas people that report against the consensus (untruthfully) will lose their REP tokens and earn nothing. Furthermore, the more REP a user has, the more value or trust is assigned thereto person’s input.
In other words, Reputation tokens are gained and lost counting on the reliability of users votes with the consensus. The Augur Team released an infographic to elucidate how the Reputation tokens work.
What Predictions are Used For
People can found out events in any topic and buy shares for the possible outcomes of these events. Ether and bitcoins are accepted within the platform. The algorithm will then work with the crowdsourced information and provides top predictions supported consensus. Once the event is concluded, the funds related to shares of the right outcome are distributed to ‘winners’.
Augur are often used beyond mere betting platform. Joey Krug, co-founder and lead developer of Augur said that the platform ‘could be employed by farmers in Argentina to hedge against weather cycles or by Chinese traders who are unable to access the US stock market’, and even suggests that ‘prediction markets might be employed by doctors to more accurately diagnose patients.’
Prediction markets aren’t new concepts, but it’s highly decentralised nature means Augur is somewhat unaffected by limitations set by regulations.
A bond posted by anyone to possess an Open Market re-adjudicated by every reporter. If the consensus remains an equivalent when the market is resolved, the Appeal Bond is paid to reporters to supplement trading fees.
If the ultimate consensus is different than the one appealed when the market resolves, the Appeal Bond is doubled in value at the expense of reporters that reported con to the consensus and sent to the Appeal Bond poster.
When a sequence of transactions splits into two seperate time-lines thanks to irreconcilable disagreement. When a Fork Bond is posted towards an appealed market this conensus disagreement creates a time-line during which the first consensus is valid and another where it’s not.
This duality should eventually collapse because the invalid fork rapidly loses all value. This collapse of activity and value is monitored by the Augur system to autonomously select the honest fork for Open Markets.
Early Resolution Bond
A bond paid by anyone to request a market be resolved before its expiration date. it’s returned to the poster if subsequent consensus from reporters is anything except “Market isn’t ready for early expiration,” which ends up within the bond being paid to the reporters.
A bond posted by anyone to possess the reputation history fork so as to contest the consensus that resulted from an appealed markets re-adjudication. within the first fork of reputation, reputation is adjusted as if the previous consensus is correct. The fork bond is distributed respectively to all or any reporters that committed to the present consensus.
In the second fork of reputation, the fork bond is returned to the bond poster. additionally to the quality 20% penalty, all reporters that committed to the previous consensus pay a penalty of X% of their reputation holdings where X is that the percent of all reputation spent on the Fork Bond.
Getting Started With Augur
Augur is a decentralized open source prediction market, in Augur you’ll be ready to make a prediction on anything and users are going to be ready to buy or sell shares therein prediction supported whether or not they think it’ll happen or not, this might be anything from the weather, to the winner of an election.
It is effectively betting however the worth of every contract will add of to $1 so if the prospect of an outcome happening was even money the contract would cost 50 cents each and you’ll buy or sell as many as you wanted. the worth of a contract also will automatically adjust supported the amount of contracts being bought or sold.
Users also will be ready to report on outcomes this may earn them reputation and contingent what proportion reputation a private has will depend upon how accurate their outcome reports are. Augur is made on the Ethereum blockchain because it will run on smart contracts, there’s also talk that it’ll run alongside the Bitcoin blockchain in order that both Ether and Bitcoin are tradeable within Augur.
What is Reputation ($REP)?
Reputation is that the token behind Augur, and may be thought of because the “score” of a private participant within Augur. Reputation isn’t an investment, but rather a tool necessary to form Augur work. The overwhelming majority of Augur participants will never hold, see, or got to use Reputation. However, it’s extremely important to know how Reputation works so as to completely grasp the Augur platform.
Reputation tokens are limited to a hard and fast supply of 11,000,000, of which 80% was sold in our public token sale last year for a collective ~$5,300,000. those that hold Reputation are expected to report accurately on the result of randomly selected events within Augur every few weeks.
If holders fail to report accurately on the result of an occasion , or plan to be dishonest – the Augur system redistributes the bad reporters Reputation to those that have reported accurately during an equivalent reporting cycle.
It’s important to notice that you simply don’t need Reputation to use Augur. Reputation is merely employed by reporters to report on the outcomes of events. Regular participants making bets on the platform will use Ether, or the other Ethereum sub currency. We hope to ascertain the use of stable-coins within the future for settlement of markets.
What are the advantages of owning $REP?
By owning Reputation and participating within the accurate reporting on the outcomes of events, you’re entitled to some of Augurs market fees. Each Reputation token entitles you to 1 / 22,000,000 of Augurs total market fees.
The more Reputation you own and report correctly with, the more in fees you’ll collect. The Repulator Calculator made by an Augur community member will offer you a rough estimate of expected earnings.